The Kelly criterion is a money management system that’s used by many professional traders and hedge funds. Calculate your probability of winning W. Many well known investors use it, including Warren Buffett and Bill Gross. In his paper “The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting, and the Stock Market”, author Ed Thorp derives the biased coin-toss model for even money in which the betting fraction f*=p-q, or the probability of winning minus that of losing, but in the situation of uneven money it’s f*=p/a-q/b. Place a second bet based upon the Kelly of the remaining capital. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal amount to bet based on the edge you have over the sportsbook. obj. It is possible. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to bet a preset fraction of an account. 5% and Ralph Vince Optimal f = 0. Calculates Kelly criterion utility for a given bankroll (expressed in percent terms) and Kelly multiplier. On the Data tab, in the Sort & Filter group, click Advanced. The Kelly Criterion bet calculator above comes pre-filled with the simplest example: a game of coin flipping stacked in your favor. Here are the steps that you have to follow in order to use our Kelly Criterion Calculator: Add your current betting balance in the cell called “Current Betting Balance”. 4% x 52. 33). 미국의 수학자 켈리(J. 1, 2. Our approach is to adhere most closely to Kelly’s original ap-proachof maximizing the assets overthe long-term, given a probabilistic distribution at each investment. The spreadsheet compares your betting. Popularised by Ed Thorpe, the formula which is named after its creator, John Kelly, is used by gamblers to determine the optimal bet based on given odds. The Kelly Criterion How To Manage Your Money When You Have an Edge. I assume that with multiple bets at a correlation of 1 I would divide the Kelly by the number of bets. 5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. Though the question affiliated with Kelly criterion is simple, the Kelly criterion has already created the spark in the cross of finance and mathematics. In my recent article The Real Kelly – an #excel implementation for mutually exclusive outcomes I described how to use excel to find optimal bet sizes for a set of mutually exclusive outcomes applying the generalised Kelly Criterion (a. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The Kelly Criterion is a bankroll management strategy by which the player calculates the size of the bet based on past performance and the current amount of money. Download PDF Download PDF with Cover Download XML Download Epub. This is what you get: Step 2The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. Basically, it’s a staking system where risk adjusts based on perceived edge for a wager. Here’s a modified version of the Kelly formula that advantage blackjack bettors use: f = a/v. 5%. xls / . In detail the algorithm will find optimal bet sizes for a set of concurrent singles and/or ’round robin’ combinations of parlays or teasers. Attached Image (click to enlarge) With the formula: N: Total trades number. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. This article will explain usage of an excel implementation applying the Real Kelly Criterion to concurrent events. Here, we determine our ideal bet size (f) by dividing our edge by the game’s variance. 18 % of your account balance on this selection. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion bet calculator above comes pre-filled with the simplest example: a game of coin flipping stacked in your favor. Seguiremo tutti gli step aggiornando la cassa di volta in volta. The basic concept of Real Kelly is discussed here The Real Kelly. When investors. The Kelly Criterion is the principle of bank management for value betting. It's free and easy to use. Now we will see how to Download Kelly Criterion Calculator for PC Windows 10 or 8 or 7 laptop using MemuPlay. In the one asset two valued payo case, the optimal Kelly wager is the edge (expected return) divided by the odds. Make sure that all other workbooks are closed, because otherwise, the next few steps could take a LONG time. Vancouver. By using the Kelly Criterion, and betting 20% of their. This Kelly Criterion Calculator App will help you manage your money better using the Kelly Criterion formula. f = fraction of current bankroll to bet. The only way to get a mathematical edge is to practice. It. 37436% to be more precise but I need help with how the author generates the Kelly Criterion of 2. g. Bringing business and financial analysis to the tidyverse. ” is published by TongTanapat. I am able to generate the same Ralph Vince Optimal f by maximizing the TWR function in Excel which is 3. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. The higher the volatility, the larger values. Simply input your betting bankroll, the odds on offer, your assessed probability for that outcome occurring and your Kelly fraction. See full list on dummies. The formula calculates the ideal sum you should stake on any bet, helping minimise your risk and maximise your profits in the long term. * W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. For example, in the screen below, cell F4 contains this formula: = SUM ( SUMIFS (C3:C7,B3:B7,{"red","gold"})) Translation: SUM sales where the color is "red" OR "gold". Kelly represents the limit to the range of rational investments. In currency pair trading, the Kelly criterion can be applied to determine the optimal position size based on the trader’s past performance. Kelly Criterion Calculator. I am able to generate the same Ralph Vince Optimal f by maximizing the TWR function in Excel which is 3. However since we could only lose half of that 50% of the bankroll in the double or half bet, that is equivalent to betting 25% of the bankroll when using the same terminology as the Kelly Criterion. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Kelly criterion staking Gruss Betting Assistant Gruss Betting Assistant Overview Setup basic market view and one click betting Ratings auto Market fav auto Simultaneous markets Kelly criterion staking Cymatic Trader Cymatic. Download as PDF; Printable version; Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. View Test Prep - 05. Part 1 of this series provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. The Real Kelly) for concurrent events. Suppose we have initial capital X 0 and we want to determine the optimal betting fraction f to invest each year in S&P 500 stocks. The spreadsheet compares your betting performance to the hypothetical results had you strictly followed the four staking plans. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. 04. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. Download Excel for Free for 1 Month!Now, in order to recover to Rs. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. It's free and easy to use. The Kelly Criterion; Other Topics. com 152 4. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. The Kelly Criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. "In probability theory and intertemporal portfolio choice, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other. This framework allows us to incorporate mean logarithmic return in problems like maximize mean logarithmic return subject to a risk constraint, maximize risk adjusted logarithmic return. ie Full Kelly where there is any uncertainty is not optimal! They then go on to describe (in their model) how to find the correct "shrinkage coefficient" (what I call α) as a function of uncertainty; α = (p−q)2 (p−q)2+σ2 = SR2 SR2+1. If you bet twice Kelly (even with a profitable system), you are mathematically guaranteed a ruin, no matter how much money you have initially. From this calculation, if you were to bet on the Celtics to beat the Lakers, the Kelly Criterion suggests you should only bet 4% of your bankroll or capital. Kelly Criterion [Kelly 1956] permits the investor to maximise return on investment, geometrically. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be calculated by inverting a matrix involving only first and second moments. Il segreto del criterio Kelly è una formula che può sembrare complessa e dal difficile: (Q x P-1) / (Q-1); Q sta per quota e P sta per probabilità. Get Hired by Top Funds! Share Article: Jul 18, 2019 Introduction To Portfolio Management. 55) on a specific spread or total priced at -110 (american odds). Fractional Kelly betting The recommended Kelly criterion stake will be multiplied by this value. 0625; The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 6. The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula of passionate interest (and controversy) to card players, sports bettors, investors, hedge fund managers, and economists. The Kelly criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. Income Calculators. * f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; * b is the odds received on the wager; * p is the probability of winning; * q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. Of course, the other end of the scale is that all 6 picks will lose. 0 sperando che possa essere utile per realizzare un profitto ed andare a cassa. It is a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. 25) – 0. ¿Qué es el Kelly Criterion? El Kelly Criterion fue desarrollado por John Kelly Jr. 3%. At the bottom of the app, tap Search and then input "AusSportsBetting" as the. Download PDF Abstract: We develop a general framework for applying the Kelly criterion to stock markets. Author: Christian Baier Last modified by: Christian Baier Created Date: 3/12/2020 1:01:27 PM Other titles: selections acca-2 acca-3 acca-4 acca-5 acca-6Kelly Criterion. With this we can calculate the optimal Kelly leverage via f = μ / σ 2 = 0. Despite expending substantial resources on a formal financial education, I did not encounter the Kelly criterion in business school or the CFA curriculum. will take. 0% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $99. In Section 3, we develop modi ed Kelly. In Section 2, we review the necessary terminology and foundations of sports gambling. Over the years we've done stuff like Dutching, hedging, Kelly Criterion, max-consecutive losses, and other formulas,. 5) would yield half-Kelly utility for a bankroll of 105% of initial. An accumulator (or acca for short), also known as a ‘ Parlay ’ or ‘ Multi ’, is a bet type that combines a series of single bets (also known as legs within a acca) into one bet. You have $1,000 with you. Providing vendors with a thorough RFP can help foster a successful. Basically, it’s a staking. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. (For example, if you have a 40% win rate, then enter the number "40", not 0. Browse Figures. This money management system is best. First thing to note: growth rate is always sloping down at k = 1 = α. L. 50, that's equivalent to having a 90% chance of winning $17. You're now. Kelly’ Criterion has an interesting background. Toll Free Canada: 1. 077 / 0. The Kelly Criterion requires there are no other rules other than the Kelly Criterion. Football betting stats & predictions | OddsWizz. Losing the first bet and winning the second will lose $4 more. Methods similar to those already described can be used to maximizeThe first credit allocation system is the adaptive Kelly strategy (‘Kelly Strategy’). Kelly Criterion works much better in systems where there is an average of positive dependence streaks: winning trades will be followed by winning trades and losing trades will be followed by losing trades. The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. The spreadsheet compares your betting. The formula is as follows: f = the fraction of the bankroll to bet. However, you’re presumably familiar with the popular and useful Microsoft Excel operation, If you’re a stoner of Free Download Excel 2016. Let Excel learn your. Sports bettors typically use it to maximize profit, although most implement a more conservative approach since the Kelly Criterion is usually considered high-variance. The main advantage is being able to use quantitative functions with the tidyverse functions including purrr, dplyr, tidyr,. 37436% to be more precise but I need help with how the author generates the Kelly Criterion of 2. اکسل یکی از نرم افزارهای مجموعه آفیس میباشد که به عنوان محبوب ترین ابزار ساخت جدول ، نمودار و مدیریت. The Real Kelly). Moneyline odds given the criterion formula spreadsheet calculates the wager Creating a plan when i realized that the formula does it is not a return. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. 39 - 5. 1. You simply multiply together the given probabilities, thus: 61. Presentation Transcript. A Kelly portfolio maximizes the expected return of any given combination of assets in the long run, by maximizing the geometric growth rate of the wealth, which can be expressed by: g_{infty}(f^*) = frac{(mu - r)^2}{2sigma^2} + rRe: The differences between the Kelly Ratio and Optimal F: (from page 22 of link above) “Clearly, the Kelly Criterion when restated in terms of products (1a)(pls see screenshot) so that it is compared formulaically on an apples to apples basis with Optimal f (2)(see screenshot), rather than sums of logarithms (1)(see screenshot), is not the same. Hence, the Kelly criterion can be very risky in the short term. Whether you are a casual bettor or a professional gambler, one of the most important tools you can use to increase your. Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. Edward O. Put simply, the Kelly Criterion or Formula is a way to calculate how much of their assets a Forex trader should risk on any given trade in order to maximize the return. 5%. We've developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. Step - 3: For each possible outcome, calculate the ending bankroll for that outcome (starting bankroll plus all wins minus all losses). Calgary. 00. He in fact, suggested the Kelly’s Criterion to help the telecom company with long distance telephone noise issues. The most common form of value betting calculator. En esta versión se han añadido nuevas funciones y mejoras, como las herramientas de análisis rápido, nuevas plantillas, mapas 3D y la búsqueda inteligente. The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. This post provides an introduction. Latane (1959, 1978) introduced log utility as an investment criterion to the finance world independent of Kelly’s work. 개요. Kelly criterion allows you find out the fraction f* of your bankroll that you should bet if the odds of a bet and the probability of its success are known such as to maximize the logarithmic growth rate of your account. kelly criterion excel; multi kelly calculator excel;Excel is an extremely powerful program that can be used for various betting related situations and none more so than calculating the Kelly criterion. The reason is because in order for the. txt) or read online for free. The more there are, the better. You stand to make $5000 if the Vegas Golden Knights win, and you can use the hedge calculator find out that if you place $2083. , This Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator takes your inputs on odds, bankroll and payouts to deliver your Kelly Criterion optimized bet size. The formula was derived by J. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. Esempio pratico e concreto: il 29 aprile si giocherà nel campionato russo il bigmatch tra Zenit San Pietroburgo e CSKA Mosca in cui è inutile negare l' equilibrio e l' incertezza. The outcome is a decentralized market that uses the Kelly criterion and is reasonably resilient to a wide range of invoicing scenarios, including 5% non-payment rates and 10% bogus invoices, yet provides a sound profit to liquidity providers. This gives us a Sharpe Ratio of S = 0. =:log1+. Predicting a borrower’s probability of default. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. 2 – Kelly’s Criterion. Open navigation menu. Download. I came across it almost by accident, in William Poundstone’s delightful book Fortune’s Formula. Thus the Kelly leverage says that for a 100,000 USD portfolio we should borrow an additional 401,000 USD to have a total portfolio value of 501,000 USD. " So, using his equation(s), I created this library for the Geometric Mean version of Optimal f. Citing from the old thread:18+ Kelly Criterion Formula For Excel Download Image Formulas from formulasexceledu. . where “a” and “b” are the amounts. By using the Kelly Criterion, you can avoid the pitfalls of overbetting and underbetting and maximize your long-term profitability. 00. 667. The actual formula is: ( (Decimal Odds -1)* (Probability of Success)) – (Probability of Failure )/ (Decimal Odds – 1)The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to bet a preset fraction of an account. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. Kelly % = W-[(1-W)/R] Where: W = Winning. There are now platforms that exist to aggregate finding the best pricing. A win/loss ratio is self-explanatory, you can calculate it by dividing. By inputting the odds, the probability of the event occurring and your betting balance, you will be able to. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. It helps identify your trading weaknesses, strengths, and areas of improvement. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. Esta fórmula es una herramienta matemática que te ayuda a determinar el tamaño óptimo de tu apuesta o inversión. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1. 00. Could you provide more. Attached Image (click to enlarge) With the formula: N: Total trades number. The Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing a bet or investment, aiming to maximize the expected geometric growth rate of wealth. Kelly, Jr in 1956. However, until recently application of the Kelly criterion to multivariate portfolios has seen little analysis. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. Please note. 2 and your odds are. This calculator enables you to calculate payoff and profit scenarios for Asian Handicap bets. It is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets in sports or investment. Kelly Criterion spreadsheet? I've been reading about using Kelly Criterion to decide stakes and I was wondering if there's a readily available spreadsheet that I can input odds into? Kelly criterion implies that you can estimate your edge. Download RFP Vendor Template - Excel. The Kelly criterion is a money management principle that beats any other approach in many respects. b = net odds. The algorithm will work for markets like ‘Liverpool To Win The EPL’, but will not work for markets like ‘Liverpool Top-4’. 62. Which I assume you can not. Kelly criterion can generate an optimal bidding fraction (MacLean et al. the market, lazy man’s gambling at its finest. Download Kelly Criterion Calculator and enjoy it on your iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. xlsx","path":"Kelly Bet Calculator. A portfolio can be optimized under the Kelly Criterion in order to form a Kelly portfolio. Request form templates allow companies to specify the requirements for a project and expectations for vendor proposals. Don't let the word "journal" confuse you into thinking its a place where you write a few lines about a few trades and you're done! The Kelly Criteria is an interesting thing to play with. The sum of positive trade amounts divided by the sum of negative trade amounts. Download full solution. You can view the bet result for a specific scoreline, or you can. Kelly's criterion where The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the maximum growth rate. 50%. Sizing an investment according to the Kelly criterion can theoretically yield the best results. In sports betting, Kelly Criterion is a bankroll management strategy and is an alternative a fixed unit staking plan. This trading journal excel guide, has a spreadsheet download. . So: 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. When the download is complete, open the file, and Microsoft will automatically install the entire collection of Microsoft 365 apps to your computer. f* is the fraction of the current wealth to bet (expressed in fraction), b is the net odds received on the bet (e. 75 in addition to your stake of $57. It can also be a. p = the probability of your bet selection winning (being correct). Volume 6 - 2020 | Practical Implementation of the Kelly Criterion: Optimal Growth Rate, Number of Trades, and. According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. The basic concept of Real Kelly is discussed here The Real Kelly. We’ll be experimenting with the Kelly criterion formula for a practical example. - Free Excel Help. Hence, the Kelly criterion can be very risky in the short term. ,Calculates Kelly stakes for bets on up to either 15 simultaneous betting events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. Excel and briefly R are used to show how the Kelly criterion is effective. In this video, you will learn how to maximize account growth by defining optimal position size using a fractional Kelly Criterion approach and minimizing you. 5 to 1 come hell or high water one thousand times we should *expect* make on average: $12,000. Choose the event type – independent events, which refers to several different games; or exclusive outcomes. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. Default value: 3%. A good introduction to the subject can be found in Wikipedia. We propose an evolutionary framework for optimal portfolio growth theory in which investors subject to environmental pressures allocate their wealth between two assets. We will show why that holds, but. Can be any positive number. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. 50%. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant researcher. The Kelly-optimal bet is a fine line based on a solid understanding of the probabilities and returns. Revisiting the Kelly Criterion Part 2: Fractional Kelly Another common complaint about the Kelly Criterion is how to manage multiple edges on concurrent bets. Kelly. (1) Outcomes must be mutually exclusive. the market, lazy man’s gambling at its finest. 7. Kelly Criterion is a variable staking plan with the goal of maximizing bankroll growth by finding the optimal bet size for each wager. Assume a gambler tosses a biased coin so that the probability p to get a tail is known and larger than 0. comThe Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets or investments to maximize long-term growth. Bayesian statistics, health economics and random stuff by Gianluca Baio. Practical Implementation of the Kelly Criterion: Optimal Growth Rate, Number of Trades, and Rebalancing Frequency for Equity Portfolios - Free download as PDF File (. It’s free and easy to use. Download full-text PDF Read full-text. Well, say hello to Kelly’s Criterion! 14. e. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio ) 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. The Kelly Criterion is a method by which you can used your assessed probability of an event occurring in conjunction with the odds for the event and your bankroll, to work out how much to wager on the event to maximise your value. If there is a fixed amount of bets the Kelly criterion will be suboptimal, but as the number of bets grows the optimal strategy will asymptotically reach the Kelly criterion. 3%, which is 0. a. Make your sports betting experience easier with. . 0% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $99. Default and up a spreadsheet kelly criterion formula and read the criterion. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. The Kelly criterion or Kelly strategy is a formula used to determine position sizing to maximize profits while minimizing losses. We won’t lie to you. This post will serve as the first of a series to discuss the Kelly criterion. It is a simple…F = ( (1. The Crypto Wizards platform capitalises on this by pre-scanning aggregated markets across thousands of coins, checking for potential opportunities and presenting these. The generalised Kelly Criterion (a. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Open navigation menuThe Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. The Kelly formula or criterion is best known as a bet optimisation tool. The famous coin-flipping exercise that many investors use to measure the performance of chance. On 40. Download full-text PDF Read full-text. Kelly ≠ Goal Kelly = Limit. , Can the Kelly Formula be generated in Excel?Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 23m+ jobs. The formula is as follows: Where: K % = The. The Kelly Criterion formula allows bettors to maximize profits from a particular bankroll, based on the value the bet holds. Copilot in Excel will help you analyze and explore your data so you can make the best decisions. The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Kelly (1956) the criterion recommends a certain fraction of a bankroll to be put on a bet with positive expectations. betting $10, on win, rewards $14, including the bet; then b=0. , a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956. Abstract. The Kelly Staking Plan is based on using the ‘ Kelly Constant ’. We've developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. How to Use the Kelly Criterion. Not only can Kelly Criterion be used for sports betting and casino games, it can also be used in the stock market. It was found that the formula, which has a gambling background and helps to determine the optimal bet size, can also help with finding the ideal investment size. Files in the download: Blog Python Code and 7 data files. While it does not assign value to risk, simple. It can seem counterintuitive in real time. Download full answer. This strategy allows you to determine the size of the rates depending on the bank and previous results. Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure […]According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. There are two categories for investing trading strategies. is the Kelly Criterion. 647. Most only know a simplified version. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion has been discussed in contexts outside of gambling, for example, in engineering economics (Kim 2008). xlsx), PDF File (. This provides an additional filter by which you can analyse. Kelly Criteria was developed in 1956 by John L. R: Number of streaks in the series. Si eres un apostador o inversor, es probable que hayas oído hablar de la fórmula de Kelly Criterion. Learn more about the Kelly criterion. The fraction of wealth allocated to each asset is known as the Kelly Portfolio which optimizes the long term compound growth rate of total wealth. Suppose we have initial capital X 0 and we want to determine the optimal betting fraction f to invest each year in S&P 500 stocks. Two simple components make up the Kelly Criterion, the first is the probability that a trade you make will return positive winnings – and the second is the win/loss ratio. Kelly Criterion In probability theory, the Kelly Criterion is a. Kellycriterion是用於賽馬注碼分配的有效工具。. 250. Although it may appear confusing, it’s actually pretty simple. It's free and easy to use. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Your fortune will grow, on average, by about 0. For example, a number of papers in MacLean, Thorp and Ziemba (2011) use Kelly principles to assist in asset allocation.